Way of the K

Useless early season polls
Preason polls (and even early polls during the season) are more the conjecture of the voters rather than anything based on actual performance. It’s a crapshoot at best. Part of the world of College Football has learned this — the B©S standings did not begin to be released until October, but part of the basis of the BCS were the two major polls, the AP writes and the Coaches, so the BCS inherited the biased heirarchy of the early season polls.

Tendancy for split-titles
The bias inherent in these polls goes back a long way, even as an undefeated team finished worse than #2 last year (Auburn), it has happened to major teams in the past as well. Just year before last, USC was left out of the BCS title game, but the AP went with them. A similar split happened in 1997 between Michigan and Nebraska. In 1994, Penn State won the Big Ten and the Rose Bowl, but lost the Poll titles on sympathy to Tom Osbourne’s Nebraska Cornhuskers, who had come back to beat Miami in the Orange Bowl the night before the Rose Bowl. Paterno had been down that road before — he had 3 unbeaten seasons in six years (1968, 1969, and 1973), including an unbeaten streak of 30 games between 1967 and 1970, but was never voted #1, and one of the years, was voted #5 after President Nixon had declared Texas the champ.

Money
The whole thing in College Football is the money. The Major bowls pay out millions, even to the losing school. NCAAA division I-AA, II and III playoffs don’t pay out a pittance compared to that. The Bowls live off the poll system, wanting the best possible matchup to bring the most fans in. Sometimes numbers of fans outweighs a ranking. Penn State has been such a team — one season they signed a bowl contract with the Blockbuster Bowl before the season began, contingent upon PSU winning 6 games. As it was, they had a 7-4 regular season, and lost the bowl game that year. Why did that bowl sign the advance contract? Simple. Money. PSU’s fan draw was a huge factor, greater chance of a sell-out. Count other schools, such as Michigan or Nebraska in the same category. What makes this possible? Huge alumni contingents spread about the county, and more alumni willing to travel to bowl games. This in turn makes those schools a better choice on the bottom line than another school that might be close or slightly better on the field of play.

Solution: Playoff Likelihood: SLIM to NONE
Even an 8 team playoff among the Major conference winners (Big Ten, Big East, ACC, SEC, Big 12, Pac 10) and two wild cards (what the BCS currently consists of) would be a major step in the right direction. This would add three games to the bowl season beyond the current four – Orange, Sugar, Rose, Fiesta – that make up the current BCS. Even a one-game runoff would be an improvement, as it would allow for split years, or years with three or more unbeatens going into bowl season, to come away with one champ. The NCAA is unwilling to even go this far.

Ah, what I wouldn’t give to have seen 1994 Nebraska play 1994 Penn State…